I personally felt the war was settled when Sony decided to include a BluRay player with every Playstation 3 sold, while Microsoft decided to make the HD-DVD drive optional on the Xbox 360.
These decisions settled the fact that a year or two after the release of both formats into the market, 10x as many people would have a machine at home that would play BluRay discs, compared to the number who had a machine that could play HD-DVD discs.
If MS had decided to make the HD-DVD drive standard on a newer version of the Xbox 360 that might have tilted things back toward being more even, but even a $200 add-on (as the HD-DVD drive was), most people will be reluctant to add on.
So effectively, many people who bought the Playstation 3 as a game machine, and not as a BluRay player, decided as an afterthought to pick up a handful of BluRay movies. And that number was many millions more people, than the number doing the same thing with their Xbox 360 and HD-DVD drive.
If you think video game systems are a trivial part of this equation, look at the number of stand-alone BluRay and HD-DVD players sold, compared to the number of Playstation 3 systems, and Xbox 360 HD-DVD add-ons.